By M. Rama rao-Atul Cowshish
New Delhi (Syndicate Features): The battle that Pakistan Gen (retd) Pervez Musharraf has been waging for his survival may now have entered a decisive stage. After dithering for more than three months and even allowing their relations to savour, the PPP and the PML (N) have thrown the gauntlet at him; both have reached the conclusion that no further time should be lost in starting the impeachment proceedings against Musharraf.
Relations between the two major partners in the ruling alliance had deteriorated fast after the PML (N) decided to withdraw its members from the cabinet. The point of difference was the reluctance of the PPP to reinstate the senior judges sacked by Musharraf. The impeachment move is expected to kill two birds with one stone—it will pave the way for the return of the sacked judges while getting rid of Musharraf.
The fate of Musharraf will probably be watched with much interest in India. But it will be too early to see his ouster—or his continuance—as bringing any major shift in Pakistan’s India policy, which is characterised by Islamabad’s one hesitant forward step and two quick backward steps. Pakistan’s support to terrorist and fundamentalist forces operating in India will show no sign of ebbing away even as the country engages in confidence building measures with India.
After being lukewarm to the idea for weeks, the PPP has finally come round to the view that Musharraf has to go–the PPP prime minister of Pakistan has called him ‘irrelevant’. This change came after a ‘reality check’ Prime Minister Gilani made during his visit to Washington. Musharraf’s strongest supporters in the White House are ready to ditch him and have given hints that they are ready to do business with the anti-Musharraf civilian government.
While doubts remain about the coalition’s ability to manage a two-thirds majority in parliament that is necessary for the impeachment motion against the president to succeed it is reasonable to assume that the PPP co-chairman Asif Ali Zardari and the PML (N) head Nawaz Sharif would not have spent three days of marathon talks—the last session ending past midnight--without discussing how to find the necessary numbers in the national assembly.
Together the coalition partners do not command a two-thirds majority in parliament. At least 16 additional votes are needed in parliament to reach that ‘magic’ number. But they seem to hope that some independents and those of smaller parties, and perhaps even some from the main opposition party PML (Q), would find it hard to swim against the tide of public opinion and support Musharraf, easily the most unpopular leader in Pakistan at the moment.
Musharraf’s allies do not tire of asserting that the president being a trained commando would not give up his fight easily. This can mean that he or his supporters would also try to poach on parliament members to prevent the ruling combine from cobbling up the two-thirds majority. In normal course this would have been very easy for Musharraf. The notorious ‘agencies’ of Pakistan, including the infamous ISI, are always at the beck and call of dictators and the army establishment.
But the situation in Pakistan today is such that even the ‘agencies’ might not like to oblige Musharraf in the face of his overwhelming unpopularity. If reports from Pakistan are any indication, the pressure of popular opinion would be a big handicap in attempts to keep Musharraf in office once the impeachment process has started. Analysts see the country plunging back into deep crisis if the impeachment move fails.
For Musharraf to win his political battle with the help of horse-trading, complete backing of the army, currently headed by a man handpicked by him, Ashfaq Pervez Kyani, will be necessary. It will be a sort of another coup. Kyani might well be inclined to provide the support for his former army chief but only if he is prepared to risk a further slide in the popularity of the army. Never in the 60 years of Pakistan’s existence, as a troubled nation, has the army been as unpopular as in recent days. Army’s intervention on behalf of Musharraf is sure to push the country back into turmoil from which it had pulled out after a long struggle with the help of general elections in February this year.
Musharraf has another option to thwart his ouster—sack the government and dissolve parliament. But then what? Another long spell of his rule, whose acclaimed economic miracle has proved to be a hoax and pushed people to the precipice of deprivation? What is more the US, about to embark on a four-month course that will end with the presidential election in November, will have no appetite to do anything to rescue Musharraf.
Besides, Pakistan will have to go to the polls again sooner rather than later if the present parliament is dissolved. The outcome of another round of polls is not hard to guess, though it is a prospect that should actually worry the PPP more than Musharraf because Nawaz Sharif, an unhesitating critic of Musharraf, is said to be on a roll.
Pak President could pre-empt some of the troubles he is facing by offering to quit. Those close to him say he will not ‘surrender’. He could also send word to the leaders of the coalition that he should be allowed to stay on as he was willing to forgo some of his controversial presidential powers, especially the one that authorises him to dismiss elected legislative bodies and the governments.
Well it is a gamble only a commando will take. Musharraf is a desperate commando. It may not succeed since both the civil society and the majority of political class want to see Musharraf clipped but punished for all that he did or did not do during his nine year rule. The coalition has already prepared a ‘charge sheet’. Among other things, it says he had failed to take a vote of confidence from the newly elected parliament despite a commitment to that effect to the Supreme Court when he was elected by the outgoing parliament in October 2007. Another charge: he had tried to ‘undermine’ the nation’s transition to democracy and weakening of the federation.
Needless to say, anything that Musharraf does now to save himself would be taken as another attempt by him to weaken democracy in Pakistan. His hands look tied.
Relations between the two major partners in the ruling alliance had deteriorated fast after the PML (N) decided to withdraw its members from the cabinet. The point of difference was the reluctance of the PPP to reinstate the senior judges sacked by Musharraf. The impeachment move is expected to kill two birds with one stone—it will pave the way for the return of the sacked judges while getting rid of Musharraf.
The fate of Musharraf will probably be watched with much interest in India. But it will be too early to see his ouster—or his continuance—as bringing any major shift in Pakistan’s India policy, which is characterised by Islamabad’s one hesitant forward step and two quick backward steps. Pakistan’s support to terrorist and fundamentalist forces operating in India will show no sign of ebbing away even as the country engages in confidence building measures with India.
After being lukewarm to the idea for weeks, the PPP has finally come round to the view that Musharraf has to go–the PPP prime minister of Pakistan has called him ‘irrelevant’. This change came after a ‘reality check’ Prime Minister Gilani made during his visit to Washington. Musharraf’s strongest supporters in the White House are ready to ditch him and have given hints that they are ready to do business with the anti-Musharraf civilian government.
While doubts remain about the coalition’s ability to manage a two-thirds majority in parliament that is necessary for the impeachment motion against the president to succeed it is reasonable to assume that the PPP co-chairman Asif Ali Zardari and the PML (N) head Nawaz Sharif would not have spent three days of marathon talks—the last session ending past midnight--without discussing how to find the necessary numbers in the national assembly.
Together the coalition partners do not command a two-thirds majority in parliament. At least 16 additional votes are needed in parliament to reach that ‘magic’ number. But they seem to hope that some independents and those of smaller parties, and perhaps even some from the main opposition party PML (Q), would find it hard to swim against the tide of public opinion and support Musharraf, easily the most unpopular leader in Pakistan at the moment.
Musharraf’s allies do not tire of asserting that the president being a trained commando would not give up his fight easily. This can mean that he or his supporters would also try to poach on parliament members to prevent the ruling combine from cobbling up the two-thirds majority. In normal course this would have been very easy for Musharraf. The notorious ‘agencies’ of Pakistan, including the infamous ISI, are always at the beck and call of dictators and the army establishment.
But the situation in Pakistan today is such that even the ‘agencies’ might not like to oblige Musharraf in the face of his overwhelming unpopularity. If reports from Pakistan are any indication, the pressure of popular opinion would be a big handicap in attempts to keep Musharraf in office once the impeachment process has started. Analysts see the country plunging back into deep crisis if the impeachment move fails.
For Musharraf to win his political battle with the help of horse-trading, complete backing of the army, currently headed by a man handpicked by him, Ashfaq Pervez Kyani, will be necessary. It will be a sort of another coup. Kyani might well be inclined to provide the support for his former army chief but only if he is prepared to risk a further slide in the popularity of the army. Never in the 60 years of Pakistan’s existence, as a troubled nation, has the army been as unpopular as in recent days. Army’s intervention on behalf of Musharraf is sure to push the country back into turmoil from which it had pulled out after a long struggle with the help of general elections in February this year.
Musharraf has another option to thwart his ouster—sack the government and dissolve parliament. But then what? Another long spell of his rule, whose acclaimed economic miracle has proved to be a hoax and pushed people to the precipice of deprivation? What is more the US, about to embark on a four-month course that will end with the presidential election in November, will have no appetite to do anything to rescue Musharraf.
Besides, Pakistan will have to go to the polls again sooner rather than later if the present parliament is dissolved. The outcome of another round of polls is not hard to guess, though it is a prospect that should actually worry the PPP more than Musharraf because Nawaz Sharif, an unhesitating critic of Musharraf, is said to be on a roll.
Pak President could pre-empt some of the troubles he is facing by offering to quit. Those close to him say he will not ‘surrender’. He could also send word to the leaders of the coalition that he should be allowed to stay on as he was willing to forgo some of his controversial presidential powers, especially the one that authorises him to dismiss elected legislative bodies and the governments.
Well it is a gamble only a commando will take. Musharraf is a desperate commando. It may not succeed since both the civil society and the majority of political class want to see Musharraf clipped but punished for all that he did or did not do during his nine year rule. The coalition has already prepared a ‘charge sheet’. Among other things, it says he had failed to take a vote of confidence from the newly elected parliament despite a commitment to that effect to the Supreme Court when he was elected by the outgoing parliament in October 2007. Another charge: he had tried to ‘undermine’ the nation’s transition to democracy and weakening of the federation.
Needless to say, anything that Musharraf does now to save himself would be taken as another attempt by him to weaken democracy in Pakistan. His hands look tied.
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